The forecasters have based their prediction on the much warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and cooling tropical Pacific conditions that will likely transition into a weak La Niña by mid-season. Of the 18 expected storms, the team of experts anticipates that 10 of those will become hurricanes, and that five of these will develop into major hurricanes - with sustained winds of 111mph or greater.

In April, the scientists’ initial prediction was for 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The latest Hurricane Alex update from the National Hurricane Center indicates:

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO later this evening.

LOCATION…24.3N 97.5W
i.e. ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
or ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…27.99 INCHES

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE and also for THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR… * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR and also for THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

As at 1 p.m. CDT on June 26, 2010, the National Hurricane Center described Tropical Storm Alex as follows:

LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…

LOCATION…17.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN * THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN…GUANAJA…AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

Click here for Alex trackers

1. Get your petroleum products strictly from established (legal) filling stations, where stringent fire safety standards are met.
2. Never store more than one gallon of kerosene, gasoline or diesel oil in your home.
3. If you must store petroleum products, ensure that it is kept in a tightly closed metal container, and stored in a cool dry place outside your home.
4. Check your cooking gas cylinder for leaks (liquid petroleum gas smells faintly like rotting eggs), and take steps to correct any leaks immediately.

Stay safe, and take extra care when handling petroleum products during hurricanes and other emergency situations.

Here are a few tips to help you prepare for the 2010 hurricane season:

1. Preparations must be made to discuss things at all levels - in homes, offices, churches, social clubs, private sector organizations and elsewhere
2. Secure important documents - drivers licenses, IDs, marriage and birth certificates and other important documents should be stored in a waterproof container or plastic bag. They should also be placed in a location where you can quickly “grab and run”.
3. Check your insurance coverage - make sure that you are insurance payments are current and that whatever insurance coverage you have is adequate.
4. Prepare a survival kit with the following items - drinking water and food (enough to last for 3 to 7 days), non-perishable packaged or canned food/juices, special foods for infants or the elderly, snacks, non-electric can opener, cooking tools, paper plates and plastic utensils, Sheets and pillows, clothing, toiletries, flashlight, candles, batteries, battery-operated radio, prescription drugs or over-the-counter medicines (where required) and a First-Aid Kit

Taking a few steps to prepare today could help you in the unfortunate event of a hurricane or tropical storm. Don’t get caught unprepared.

• If you must use candles, do not leave them unattended - keep them in safe holders and away from flammable material such as curtains, paper and wood.
• In case of heavy winds and severe electrical lightning, turn off and unplug electrical equipment, especially sensitive electronics.
• If you are using a portable generator, plug appliances into the generator, using extension cords if necessary. For your safety, place the portable generator outside the house so that it (the generator) gets proper ventilation. Always turn it off when refueling.

ERIKA’S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/HR), WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/HR), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB - 29.83 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM) PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, AND THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES, PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS (WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE).

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA, GUADELOUPE, ST. MARTIN, ST. BARTHELEMY, ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA, ST. MAARTEN, SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. NEW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/HR), AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA’S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/HR), WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM) TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA, GUADELOUPE, ST. MARTIN, ST. BARTHELEMY, ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA, ST. MAARTEN, SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO, THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

At 1100 a.m. EDT…1500 UTC…the center of tropical storm Danny was Located near latitude 30.1 north … longitude 75.5 west or about 350 Miles (565 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and about 830
Miles (1335 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

While Danny has been moving toward the west over the past couple of Hours … a motion toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr) is expected to resume soon. A turn toward the north and the north-
Northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. On the forecast track … the center of Danny is expected to pass near the outer banks of North Carolina overnight … approach the coast of southeastern New England late Saturday night … and move near the Canadian Maritimes early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph…65 km/hr…with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today … with little change in intensity forecast after that time.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

As at 1100 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 24.9 north, longitude 70.3 west or about 445 miles (715 km) east of Nassau, and about 775 miles (1250 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

It is currently moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/hr). A general northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today and tomorrow, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected on Friday (August 28).

Tropical Storm Danny’s maximum sustained winds at this time are near 45 mph (75 km/hr), with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Tropical Storm Danny is expected to cause storm rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts of 4 inches, over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos Islands.